43 weekly credits through Jul 23, 2027 · 6 months remaining on the LEAP · IV 32.4% → 32.4% · Δ 0.81 · short 2.98% OTM · 20Δ rolls: 20% of weeks at ½ credit
Combined result with 6 months left (Jul 23, 2027)
+$7,600+148.44% of LEAP
3.22%avg weekly vs LEAP debit
Avg monthly · short weeklies
+13.88%
Credits only after 20Δ rolls, vs the LEAP debit · 10.0 months
Avg monthly · weeklies net of LEAP
+14.90%
Short credits ± LEAP mark with 6 months left (Jul 23, 2027)
Total weekly premiums +$7,080 per contract after the 20-delta roll book (−$787 vs $7,867 if every week filled at full credit), plus LEAP mark-to-market +$520. Simple monthly averages divide that return by 10.0 months (same basis as the +178.81% annualized figure).
Avg weekly vs LEAP
3.22%
$1.65/sh · 43 weeks
Premiums collected
$7,080
138.29% of the $5,120 debit · 20Δ roll haircut $787
LEAP value at exit
$56.40
+$5.20 / +10.15% vs debit
Stock at exit
$201.76
Path to $212.17 at LEAP expiration
Share basis
$201.20
Strike $150 + debit $51.20
Basis after premiums
$130.40
Credits walked the synthetic cost down
Upside to this short
+$5,960
Called at $190 · +$59.60/sh
If LEAP is worthless
+$1,960
Premiums minus debit, per contract
This path’s combined mark is above the cap at today’s short. That extra only stays if you roll the strike up with the stock (the 20-delta assumption).
Move grid
Same book, seven linear paths to expiration. IV change at exit is 0% vol points on every row. Click a row to load that path.
| Move | Spot at exit | Combined | % LEAP | Monthly net | Shorts only |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30% | $149.98 | +$2,552 | +49.85% | +5.00% | +12.07% |
| −15% | $167.24 | +$4,020 | +78.51% | +7.88% | +12.67% |
| 0% | $184.50 | +$5,733 | +111.97% | +11.24% | +13.28% |
| +10% | $196.01 | +$6,965 | +136.04% | +13.66% | +13.68% |
| +15% | $201.76 | +$7,600 | +148.44% | +14.90% | +13.88% |
| +25% | $213.27 | +$8,895 | +173.74% | +17.44% | +14.28% |
| +40% | $230.53 | +$10,881 | +212.51% | +21.33% | +14.89% |
Combined is per contract. Monthly net is weeklies ± LEAP mark, divided by months held.
Stock path to exit
P/L vs original LEAP debit
Monthly roll-up
| Month | Weeks | Premium | Avg spot | LEAP | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 2 | $3.15 | $184.70 | $51.31 | +$3.26 |
| Oct 2026 | 4 | $6.35 | $185.90 | $51.76 | +$10.06 |
| Nov 2026 | 4 | $6.40 | $187.50 | $52.20 | +$16.90 |
| Dec 2026 | 5 | $8.08 | $189.29 | $52.76 | +$25.54 |
| Jan 2027 | 4 | $6.53 | $191.09 | $53.21 | +$32.52 |
| Feb 2027 | 4 | $6.58 | $192.69 | $53.67 | +$39.56 |
| Mar 2027 | 5 | $8.30 | $194.49 | $54.26 | +$48.45 |
| Apr 2027 | 4 | $6.70 | $196.28 | $54.74 | +$55.63 |
| May 2027 | 4 | $6.76 | $197.88 | $55.25 | +$62.90 |
| Jun 2027 | 5 | $8.52 | $199.68 | $55.93 | +$72.10 |
| Jul 2027 | 2 | $3.43 | $201.08 | $56.22 | +$75.82 |
Figures are per share. Multiply by 100 for one contract.
Week-by-week book
| Wk | Spot | Credit | % LEAP | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $184.50 | $1.58 | 3.08% | +$1.58 |
| 2 | $184.90 | $1.58 | 3.08% | +$3.26 |
| 3 | $185.30 | $1.58 | 3.09% | +$4.96 |
| 4 | $185.70 | $1.59 | 3.10% | +$6.65 |
| 5 | $186.10 | $1.59 | 3.10% | +$8.35 |
| 6 | $186.50 | $1.59 | 3.11% | +$10.06 |
| 7 | $186.90 | $1.60 | 3.12% | +$11.76 |
| 8 | $187.30 | $1.60 | 3.12% | +$13.47 |
| 9 | $187.70 | $1.60 | 3.13% | +$15.19 |
| 10 | $188.09 | $1.61 | 3.14% | +$16.90 |
| 11 | $188.49 | $1.61 | 3.14% | +$18.62 |
| 12 | $188.89 | $1.61 | 3.15% | +$20.35 |
| 13 | $189.29 | $1.62 | 3.16% | +$22.08 |
| 14 | $189.69 | $1.62 | 3.16% | +$23.81 |
| 15 | $190.09 | $1.62 | 3.17% | +$25.54 |
| 16 | $190.49 | $1.63 | 3.18% | +$27.28 |
| 17 | $190.89 | $1.63 | 3.18% | +$29.02 |
| 18 | $191.29 | $1.63 | 3.19% | +$30.77 |
| 19 | $191.69 | $1.64 | 3.20% | +$32.52 |
| 20 | $192.09 | $1.64 | 3.20% | +$34.27 |
| 21 | $192.49 | $1.64 | 3.21% | +$36.03 |
| 22 | $192.89 | $1.65 | 3.22% | +$37.79 |
| 23 | $193.29 | $1.65 | 3.22% | +$39.56 |
| 24 | $193.69 | $1.65 | 3.23% | +$41.33 |
| 25 | $194.09 | $1.66 | 3.24% | +$43.10 |
| 26 | $194.49 | $1.66 | 3.24% | +$44.88 |
| 27 | $194.89 | $1.66 | 3.25% | +$46.66 |
| 28 | $195.28 | $1.67 | 3.26% | +$48.45 |
| 29 | $195.68 | $1.67 | 3.26% | +$50.24 |
| 30 | $196.08 | $1.67 | 3.27% | +$52.03 |
| 31 | $196.48 | $1.68 | 3.28% | +$53.83 |
| 32 | $196.88 | $1.68 | 3.28% | +$55.63 |
| 33 | $197.28 | $1.68 | 3.29% | +$57.44 |
| 34 | $197.68 | $1.69 | 3.30% | +$59.26 |
| 35 | $198.08 | $1.69 | 3.30% | +$61.08 |
| 36 | $198.48 | $1.69 | 3.31% | +$62.90 |
| 37 | $198.88 | $1.70 | 3.32% | +$64.73 |
| 38 | $199.28 | $1.70 | 3.32% | +$66.56 |
| 39 | $199.68 | $1.70 | 3.33% | +$68.40 |
| 40 | $200.08 | $1.71 | 3.34% | +$70.25 |
| 41 | $200.48 | $1.71 | 3.34% | +$72.10 |
| 42 | $200.88 | $1.71 | 3.35% | +$73.96 |
| 43 | $201.28 | $1.72 | 3.36% | +$75.82 |
Each week’s credit is the expected value after a 20-delta roll book: 20% of trades rolled for half a normal credit.
The projected path trades through your current short strike. The model still assumes you keep selling the same percentage of spot each week (rolling the strike with the stock).
How the numbers are built
Week 1 full credit is 0.95% of today’s stock. Every later week keeps that same yield on the then-current spot, with price walking linearly from now to your expiration target of $212.17.
Because the shorts are 20-delta, the book assumes 20% of weeks are defensive rolls that only net 50% of a normal credit. Expected credit each week is therefore 90% of the full quote (a 10% haircut, $787 per contract over this path).
Average weekly return is that roll-adjusted credit divided by the original LEAP debit (3.22% per week across 43 collections). Average monthly short-call return (+13.88%) is total premiums over the debit, divided by 10.0 months held. Net of the LEAP mark at exit, that monthly figure is +14.90%.
The LEAP is marked with 6 months left (Jul 23, 2027) with Black-Scholes. Today’s implied vol is 32.4%; at exit it is 32.4% (0% vol points, walked in linearly). Delta now 0.81. Intrinsic $34.50 + extrinsic $16.70. Rate assumed 4.25%, no dividend.
Share basis is LEAP strike plus debit. Credits reduce that basis. Leftover upside is today’s short strike minus basis-after-premiums — also the P/L if you get called away there. “If LEAP is worthless” is premiums minus debit (stock crushed, call → 0).
Combined = roll-adjusted premiums collected through the exit date, plus or minus the LEAP’s gain or loss versus the debit you paid. The move grid reruns the same book on seven linear paths; it does not model early assignment beyond the 20-delta roll haircut.